Records · Men's national teams
The biggest upsets in men's international football history
Every one of the 48,623 men's internationals from 30 November 1872 to 5 November 2026, ranked by how unlikely the result looked beforehand: the winner's chance of winning, from Formline's ratings on the day. Both teams had to have played enough recent matches for the model to know them well, so sides with little history are left out.
| 1 | Georgia 1–0 Spain Friendly · 7 June 2016 | 2% |
| 2 | Malaysia 1–0 Australia Indonesian Independence Cup · 11 August 1992 | 2% |
| 3 | Latvia 3–1 Norway UEFA Euro qualification · 6 September 1998 | 2% |
| 4 | Peru 3–1 Brazil Copa América · 30 September 1975 | 3% |
| 5 | Malta 1–0 Ukraine Friendly · 6 June 2017 | 3% |
| 6 | Hong Kong, China 1–0 Australia Friendly · 11 August 1976 | 3% |
| 7 | Türkiye 2–0 Soviet Union (Russia) Friendly · 16 October 1966 | 3% |
| 8 | Algeria 2–1 West Germany (Germany) FIFA World Cup · 16 June 1982 | 3% |
| 9 | Togo 3–1 Nigeria Friendly · 9 June 1996 | 3% |
| 10 | Bermuda 3–0 Cabo Verde Friendly · 6 June 2026 | 3% |
| 11 | Vietnam 1–0 Korea Republic AFC Asian Cup qualification · 19 October 2003 | 3% |
| 12 | Swaziland (Eswatini) 2–0 Zimbabwe COSAFA Cup · 5 May 2002 | 4% |
| 13 | Singapore 1–0 Burma (Myanmar) Merdeka Tournament · 7 August 1971 | 4% |
| 14 | Mauritius 2–0 Angola Africa Cup of Nations qualification · 28 February 1999 | 4% |
| 15 | Iceland 1–0 England Friendly · 7 June 2024 | 4% |
| 16 | Lesotho 2–1 Zimbabwe Africa Cup of Nations qualification · 14 January 2001 | 4% |
| 17 | Cameroon 1–0 Brazil FIFA World Cup · 2 December 2022 | 4% |
| 18 | Moldova 3–2 Poland UEFA Euro qualification · 20 June 2023 | 4% |
| 19 | Czechoslovakia (Czechia) 4–2 Hungary Central European International Cup · 20 May 1956 | 4% |
| 20 | Malawi 1–0 Zambia Friendly · 13 March 2000 | 4% |
| 21 | Israel 3–2 France FIFA World Cup qualification · 13 October 1993 | 4% |
| 22 | Norway 2–1 Hungary FIFA World Cup qualification · 12 June 1957 | 4% |
| 23 | Peru 1–0 Brazil Friendly · 28 April 1985 | 4% |
| 24 | United Arab Emirates 1–0 Japan Kirin Cup · 27 May 2005 | 4% |
| 25 | Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–0 Denmark UEFA Euro qualification · 2 April 2003 | 4% |
| 26 | Central African Republic 1–0 Nigeria FIFA World Cup qualification · 7 October 2021 | 4% |
| 27 | Qatar 2–1 Iraq Gulf Cup · 25 March 1984 | 4% |
| 28 | Bulgaria 2–1 Netherlands Friendly · 26 May 2012 | 4% |
| 29 | Saudi Arabia 2–1 Argentina FIFA World Cup · 22 November 2022 | 5% |
| 30 | Latvia 1–0 Sweden UEFA Euro qualification · 11 October 2003 | 5% |
The percentage is the winner's chance before kick-off.
Biggest wins · Longest winning and unbeaten runs · Every country's best-ever team · FIFA ranking vs Formline · Women's biggest upsets · All records
Ratings and chances are Formline's, worked out from every international result in the open archives maintained by Mart Jürisoo (CC0), with recent results from API-Football. In the runs, a match settled on penalties counts as a draw. Every source is listed on Sources & thanks.