Tournament simulator · Men's national teams
World Cup 2026 — rewind
Canada, Mexico and the United States, 11 June to 19 July 2026 · already played
Formline played the whole Rewind: World Cup 2026 10,000 times, using its ratings from the day before kick-off and the results already in. Spain won it in 18% of them.
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| Team | Round of 32 | Winner |
| Spain | 99% | 18% |
| Argentina | 99% | 17% |
| France | 97% | 10% |
| England | 99% | 9% |
| Brazil | 98% | 8% |
| Portugal | 95% | 6% |
| Belgium | 97% | 4% |
| Colombia | 93% | 4% |
| Germany | 97% | 4% |
| Netherlands | 94% | 3% |
| Mexico | 94% | 3% |
| Switzerland | 97% | 2% |
| Uruguay | 92% | 2% |
| Morocco | 89% | 1% |
| Canada | 95% | 1% |
| Norway | 85% | 1% |
| Japan | 85% | 1% |
| Ecuador | 92% | 1% |
| USA | 78% | 1% |
| Croatia | 89% | 1% |
| Senegal | 76% | <1% |
| IR Iran | 81% | <1% |
| Türkiye | 72% | <1% |
| Austria | 77% | <1% |
| Paraguay | 65% | <1% |
| Algeria | 67% | <1% |
| Korea Republic | 73% | <1% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 77% | <1% |
| Australia | 59% | <1% |
| Egypt | 71% | <1% |
| Czechia | 68% | <1% |
| Sweden | 59% | <1% |
| Scotland | 62% | 0% |
| Congo DR | 36% | 0% |
| Tunisia | 31% | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 56% | 0% |
| Panama | 46% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 32% | 0% |
| Uzbekistan | 37% | 0% |
| South Africa | 36% | 0% |
| Cabo Verde | 27% | 0% |
| Ghana | 25% | 0% |
| New Zealand | 21% | 0% |
| Jordan | 21% | 0% |
| Haiti | 17% | 0% |
| Qatar | 17% | 0% |
| Iraq | 14% | 0% |
| Curaçao | 10% | 0% |
The first 48-team World Cup: twelve groups of four, with the top two and the eight best third-placed teams going on to a round of 32. Simulated with the ratings as they stood the day before the tournament, then compared with what happened. The three hosts have home advantage in every match. Which group winner meets which third-placed team follows FIFA's rules, though not always its exact table.
All teams · Match predictions · Head to head
Results from the open archives maintained by Mart Jürisoo (CC0), with recent results and fixtures from API-Football. Every source is listed on Sources & thanks.